Looking for a little value in Saturday’s Spanish football action? Our man in the know has his eye on some cracking bets in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid v Eibar, 15:00
Atletico Madrid are odds-on to beat Eibar and probably will do so, but the Basque side have punched above their weight in 2015/16 La Liga Primera and have the top-scoring Spaniard of the division in Borja Baston.
Notably, three of Atleti’s defenders will miss the game due to suspension – centre-back Godin, left-back Felipe Luis and right-back Juanfran – and with back-up left-back Siqueira now on-loan at Valencia, Simeone will likely use Gamez and Hernandez in the full-back positions, with Savic and Gimenez at centre-back.
So, all in all, as good as Atleti are defensively, their makeshift back-four and Baston’s form suggests that Both Teams To Score & Atleti to win is a bet well worth chancing. However, somewhat critically, Baston is actually an Atletico Madrid player who’s simply on-loan, and with Eibar unwilling (or unable) to pay the €150,000 that would allow him to line-up at the Vicente Calderon against his permanent employers, he’s been left out of their match day squad.
Even still, as much as a logical bet’s gone out of the window, it’s worth noting that Eibar’s last seven games have each seen three goals or more – and the Basque side scored against Atleti in two of the last three head-to-head meetings – so three goals or more is not out of the question on Saturday, even if Baston won’t play.
Finally, if the even money-priced over 2.5 goals isn’t for you, whilst it’s only a 3/5 shot pricewise, Atleti to score over 1.5 total goals looks likely. Since the tiny northern side gained promotion to the Spanish top-flight, they’ve managed a brace or more in all three of their meetings with Eibar.
Rayo Vallecano v Las Palmas, 17:15
This is 18th v 17th and the onus is therefore on Rayo to make use of home advantage and climb above their relegation rivals. However, with just one win in their last twelve games, it’s hard to trust the Madrid-based side enough to bet on them.
Instead, with ten of Rayo’s last twelve games seeing three goals or more, coupled with a total of seven games that have seen over 2.5 goals in Las Palmas’ last twelve contests, over 2.5 looks the bet to chance at a 3/4 price.
Alternatively, and perhaps a slightly better bet, backing yes in the Both Teams To Score market looks like a strong wager as it’s landed in 9 out of 12 games for each team this season. Of course, the 4/6 price isn’t for everyone.
Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal, 19:30
Ten points currently separate fourth-placed Villarreal and sixth-placed Athletic Bilbao, so if the Basque side are to have a stronger chance of qualifying for next season’s UEFA Champions League, they’ll need to take all three points at San Mames on Saturday.
A Villarreal side that are eight points clear of the fifth best team, Sevilla, could actually lose to Athletic and still remain fourth, so they seem likely to be happy with a point in Basque country this weekend.
In an ideal world, Athletic draw no bet is the punt to take, but at 1/3 it’s too short for a single, so we look to the goals markets instead.
Indeed, three of the last four head-to-head clashes between these two have seen three goals or more, including Athletic’s 3-2 Copa del Rey defeat of the Yellow Submarines in Bilbao in mid-January, so over 2.5 goals looks like a decent wager at an odds-against 11/10 price.
Sporting Gijon v Deportivo La Coruna, 21:05
This is 16th against 9th and ordinarily the sort of game you’d back the away team on a draw no bet or + 0.25 Asian handicap basis in, but then Sporting have won two games on the bounce – including a 1-0 win at Valencia last weekend – and Depor have only won one of their last twelve contests, with that win coming in mid-December.
As such, backing Sporting in the Draw No Bet market looks like the best bet at 4/5, with the 6/5 priced over 2.5 goals also worth strong consideration due to the fact that the Gijon-based side’s last five home games have each seen three goals or more, while Depor have shipped twelve goals in their last five games.